The Anthony Davis-led Pelicans are one of the most anticipated teams next season. Davis just came off of a historical year in terms of PER, and is looking to continue on his tear.
They just hired former Suns head coach and Warriors associate head coach, Alvin Gentry, who's stock had just risen by the Warriors winning the title.
This past year, the Pelicans were 8th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. Under Monty Williams, the Pelicans mostly ran pick-and-rolls or dished to open shooters. The Davis pick-and-roll has been extremely deadly this year, as he added a reliable jumper to his arsenal. Not only can he shoot a jumper, but he can also drive as well as the best. He'll even throw in some guard-like jabs if he needs too. He led the league in pick-and-rolls as the roll man with 365; however, he was only 12th in points per possession among players who did the pick-and-roll more than 75 times.
Luckily for the Pelicans, Gentry handled a similar player with a similar offensive skill-set in a similar system. Remember Amar'e Stoudemire?
Gentry didn't really have a "system" either; just P&Rs and open threes.
The 2009-10 season marked the end of an era for both the Suns and STAT. The 2010 version of STAT was my personal favorite. While he was out in 2009, the Suns where looking to trade him (until the All-Star break in Dallas). The Suns were close to pulling the trigger on multiple deals that would have brought them either J.J. Hickson/Zydrunas Ilgauskas/Cavaliers 1st Rounder, Andre Iguodala, or even Stephen Curry, fresh out of Davidson. The trade deadline passed and Stoudemire was still wearing purple. That was when he became a true juggernaut: after the All-Star break, he and Nash led the Suns to a 23-6 record and the third seed while averaging a whopping 26.6 points 9.5 rebounds on 55.5% shooting. This is where I think he reminded us about his accurate mid-range jumper. Whoever was guarding him; Artest, Gasol, Duncan, Camby, Oden, or Aldridge, he just seemed unstoppable offensively.
Why do I bring all this up? Well, I am trying to show how the Pelicans should model their team. Of course Davis is much better than 2010 Amar'e on the defensive end; that's a huge benefit for the Pelicans. However, Amar'e didn't put up those offensive numbers by himself. He needed help. The help of one of the greatest point guards of all time. The first year Steve Nash arrived in Phoenix, Stoudemire's scoring average raised 5.4 points and his shooting percentage increased by 8.4%. This just shows the benefit of a great passer. It's not like Stoudemire's Usage Rate increased dramatically; he handled 24.2% of the possessions in 2003-04 to 25.2% in 2004-05. Steve Nash propelled that Suns team to a 33 win turn around simply by making the people around him more productive.
The Pelicans already have Jrue Holiday, who averaged 8 assists as an All-Star in Philly. The problem with Jrue is that he can't stay healthy for more than 40 games a year now.
I outlined the Nash example to show how great passers can bring out the best in players, and how that has worked under Gentry. If Davis is this much of a beast right now, it'll be scary how much better he could be if he had someone who can efficiently run the pick-and-roll repeatedly and efficiently.
Only one problem for the Pelicans: Steve Nash retired.
REGGIE JACKSON
Reggie Jackson finished last season with a fury in Detroit. He put up averages of 17.6 points and 9.2 assists. In all of 2014-15, he ran 295 pick and rolls. This was the action he took 41% of the time while he was on the floor. He generated .91 points per possesion off of the pick and roll, which places him in the 86th percentile.
All of these numbers would be higher if he was the primary ball handler for the whole year. He played 50 games in OKC, where he had to coexist with Russell Westbrook for a large part of the time.
Jackson has shown continual growth every year in his career, and he will continue to grow. If he is able to take over point guard duties for the Pelicans, he could average around 10 assists per game.
LOUIS WILLIAMS
Louis Williams just won 6th man of the year, strictly because he could score the basketball. He averaged 15.5 points a game with only 2.1 assists. However, the way he got his points is key.
It's not like Williams is a terrible passer; he's very decent. But the fact that he can score gives him an edge. He ran 377 pick and rolls this year, which was only 31.8% of his play call this year.
Get this: he generated 1.03 points per pick and roll possession. That put him at #1 with players who ran the pick and roll more than 100 times.
Of course, most of these points were for himself, so this will not help Davis develop further. Although it does help the team's efficiency, Gentry might not want to have Lou Will on his team because he clearly said he wants to be Pelicans head coach since Anthony Davis was being underutilized.
PELICANS SHOULD PURSUE RAJON RONDO.
After his dramatic downward spiral in the playoffs, this may seem blasphemous.
Yes, yes, I know. He has a terrible attitude. But hypothetically speaking, while disregarding his antics, this would be a very nice fit. The old Rondo, 2012 Rondo, was an excellent passer. He was both flashy and smart with the ball. In his best year in terms of sharing the ball, he averaged 11.7 assists with 3.6 turnovers. He's shown us he can do a lot of maneuvers with his craftiness, including the pick-and-roll (again). In 2012, he had an astounding 52.5 AST%, meaning that while he was on the floor, he assisted 52.5% of the shots while he was on the floor.
This only holds true if they get the Boston version of Rondo as his P&R numbers were not good this year.
Don't forget about the "Playoff Rondo" that did so well in the postseason. In addition to his offense he can also bring championship experience and defense. Before all the drama went down in Dallas, he truly helped their defense. Upon his arrival until about the first time Carlisle and Rondo first clashed on camera (32 games), the Mavericks gave up 98.65 points per game as opposed to 102.78 points per game (27 games). Gentry's teams --including last year's Pelicans-- have always had trouble with defense, but the hiring of the Boston Celtics' assistant Darren Erman and the addition of Rondo may just fix that.
That 2010 Suns team won 54 games solely due to their offense. They scored 115.3 points per game per 100 possessions under Gentry. The additions of Rondo and Gentry could take them to at least a top three offense. If you look at the offensive build between both teams' 8-man roster, they are pretty similar.
Steve Nash vs. Reggie Jackson/Lou Williams/Rajon Rondo/Jrue Holiday:
Jason Richardon vs. Eric Gordon:
Grant Hill and Tyreke Evans are wild cards
Amar'e Stoudemire vs. Anthony Davis:
Robin Lopez vs Omer Asik:
Channing Frye vs. Ryan Anderson
Jared Dudley vs. Quincy Pondexter
Goran Dragic vs. Norris Cole
In a different order of business, the Pelicans MUST re-sign Asik. He plays a much needed role on this team, kind of like Bogut on the Warriors. You need him to be a rim protector for the fast paced offense. In addition, Asik is an excellent passer. If he is able to improve his post game, he would draw defenders in, causing shooters to be open.
In grand scheme, the pick-and-roll has proven to work under Gentry, but only with a prolific passer. The best available passer in the league right now is Rajon Rondo, in my opinion. Assuming he meshes with Gentry well, it would be a great fit. Davis already finishes many of his baskets off of P&Rs, so he would be able to play an Amar'e type offensive role with Rondo. He already averages 24 points a game right now, so if Rondo or Jackson is able to maximize Davis's efficiency, he could be the MVP on a 55 win team.
Do you agree? Who should the Pelicans pursue? Leave your responses in the comments below!
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